April 6, 2012 by Mike.

Here is the frame:  In 1972 a bunch of computer nerds were commissioned by the Club of Rome to complete computer modeling of finite resources, rates of consumption and population growth.  The output was a book called The Limits to Growth.   It caused a bit of a stir because the computer modeling predicted that global economic collapse and precipitous population decline could occur by 2030.  Wikipedia has a pretty well referenced page on the The Limits to Growth.

The original study was criticized by lots of folks who thought that growth could somehow become sustainable, that more resources would be found, etc.  The methodology was criticized. This study was not popular with economic growth globalists.

The Limits to Growth has been revisited on a number of occasions.  Most recently an Australian physicist named Graham Turner completed a thirty year look back at the computer modeling and Turner’s study is published at The Smithsonian.   This kind of thing is like disneyland for nerds.  Graphs, charts, all sorts of variables to argue about.  It’s a wonderland for slide rule afficionados.  Needless to say, it’s hard to present on CNN, MSNBC, BBC in a way that has gets the message across.

Look at the graph and try to focus on one primary matter:  The thirty year slice of history from 1972 to 2002 shows that the numbers in reality have developed largely as predicted by the 1972 study suggested.   Click on the graph to jump to the Smithsonian story if you want.

The good news is on the blue line where pollution is predicted to drop hard.  So, it’s not all bad.  There is something to look forward to in the projection.

I think I would prefer to see the human population make some difficult choices and reduce consumption to change the trend lines, but it’s not a popular suggestion with the folks who make the decisions.  What do they call themselves?   Oh, yeah…  the deciders.

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March 30, 2012 by Mike.

It seems likely to me that the Supreme Court Inc. will break out 5 to 4 to scuttle as much of the President Obama’s health care program as possible, perhaps all of it.  This is a pyrrhic victory for the opponents of Obama, but may not be all that bad a thing for those of us who think that health care reform based on private insurance and fee for service profitability has always been a poor choice.  The anemic public option that might have kept a foot in the door for the better single payer (Medicare for Everyone) option was dropped by the even more anemic Democratic Party when they were pressed by the Republicans.

Robert Scheer hits the mark in my estimation with his article:  Five Hypocrites and One Bad Plan that ran at Truth Dig.   I think that the five justices in question are simply adhering the hypocritic oath and performing true to form.

Paul Krugman came out today with his view that the 5 right justices would seize on any argument that would allow them to strike down progressive legislation, and if that is true, then maybe it would not have mattered if health care reform had included a public option.

What do you think?  Are the Supremes going to strike it down?  Cast your votes and predict the score.  I am going with the easy prediction:  5 to 4 to strike the law down.

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March 11, 2012 by Mike.

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March 9, 2012 by Mike.

James Stafford with Oilprice.com suggested that their interview with Juan Cole would be of interest.  With gas prices surging over $4 per gallon, oil news is probably of interest.  

I agree, therefore:

Oil & Politics - The Real Situation in Iraq

A delegation from the International Energy Agency spent two days in Baghdad speaking with high-ranking officials in preparation for an end-of-year report on the country’s oil sector. By some estimates, Iraq could hold some of the largest oil reserves in the world and an international auction for oil and natural gas blocks is planned for May. Without a hydrocarbon law, and considering the fractured political system, the IEA’s report may be more about political obstacles than oil potential, however.

Baghdad announced triumphantly this week that oil production increased to more than 3 million barrels per day for the first time in more than 30 years. Exports, the government said, should increase substantially once a new floating oil terminal starts operations later this week. The IEA in December said crude oil production in Iraq could reach an average of 4.36 million bpd by 2016, about half of what Riyadh produces. The agency warned, however, that Iraq’s fractured political system might be as much of an obstacle as anything.

Iraq’s post-invasion political system has never been stable. Tensions in Baghdad flared up when Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki accused his Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi of terrorism almost as soon as the last American troop left the country in December. Juan Cole, the man behind the influential blog Informed Comment, said the action by Maliki “was part of an effort to marginalize and humiliate his Sunni enemies, and a sign of unwillingness to seek a grand national bargain.”

Iraq may be a democratic country in theory but it certainly isn’t quick on the political front, especially when it comes to passing a long-delayed hydrocarbon law. Cole, a professor of history at the University of Michigan, described Iraqi politics as anything but stable.

“I wouldn’t hold my breath on getting anything accomplished on the oil law,” he said.

Maliki may be able to use his hard-ball tactics in an effort to get his way on things like the federal budget, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to widespread political influence across the rest of the country, said Cole.

Kurdish leaders objected profusely when it looked like Exxon Mobil would be left out of Iraq’s upcoming fourth international auction because of its contracts with the semiautonomous Kurdish government. Deputy Prime Minister Rowsch Nuri Shaways, a lawmaker from the Kurdistan Democratic Party, complained, in a statement, that Baghdad was somehow opposed to “economic openness” and the “promotion of trade.” Baghdad protests that any unilateral deals with the Kurdish government are illegal, though Cole said there isn’t much that the central government can do about it.

“The Iraqi government faces two big problems on petroleum development. It is still too weak to provide security reliably for the Western corporations and their employees,” he said. “And, it is still economically depressed enough to be afraid of being taken advantage of by a bidding process that favors the corporations — causing it to drive so hard a bargain that it has spooked potential investors.”

Iraq could be able to take advantage of its strategic position in the Middle East. Its Turkish neighbors to the north are keen to become an influential energy hub by playing host to some of the most ambitious oil and natural gas pipelines in the world. To Iraq’s south, the Strait of Hormuz transports about 20 percent of the oil traded globally.

“Politically, however, Iraq is landlocked,” said Cole.

Getting a federal budget passed this year might’ve been a temporary political victory for Maliki. Long term, however, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to make any claims to a political mandate in a country that relies so heavily on oil for its federal revenue. Baghdad has tilted at times toward Iran and higher oil prices may embolden the Shiite prime minister’s position. But Iraq might find itself in a geopolitical tug-of-war given Washington’s regional interests.

“Iraq is extremely vulnerable right now,” Cole warned.

The IEA is expected to release its report on Iraq in October as a prelude to its full energy outlook for 2012. While expressing optimism about the prospects for the oil sector in post-war Iraq, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said politics are getting in the way of broader developments. When asked what he would title the October report from the IEA, Cole just chuckled and said “slow progress.”

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iraq-Oil-Outlook-Overly-Ambitious.html

By. Daniel J. Graeber of Oilprice.com

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February 6, 2012 by Mike.

The Thurston County Progressive Network are a great bunch of folks who work year-round to produce a more progressive community in the Olympia area.  In this week’s calendar they share a link to World Life Expectancy website and a cancer cluster map. 

It’s an interesting website from an epidemiology perspective.  The suggestion in the cancer cluster webpage is that environmental degradation can be tracked to a certain extent by cancer rates.  I think there are a lot of regional cultural issues, like diet, wealth/poverty that also contribute to the cancer clusters, but environmental degradation is probably part of the story.  If you live in one of the black (high cancer rate incidence) counties, you can weigh in with why you think your county might have high cancer rates.

I am in Lewis County, WA.  It’s a relatively low income per capita by WA standards, so we probably have a lower rate of preventive medical care, but we also have a couple of superfund cleanup sites, one for PCBs, and we have a coal mine (not operational today) and a coal-fired electricity plant, known locally as the Centralia Steam Plant.  We try not to mention coal here on either shore of Coal Creek, but the steam plant and the steam mine have been a large part of Lewis County economy over the decades.

This website also has an informative interactive world life expectancy map that includes gender life expectancy.  Pretty cool website.  Lots of information.

oh, friendship is good for longevity, according to these folks.  Sounds right to me.

Don’t miss this page if you are a budding epidemiologist.

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January 11, 2012 by mike.

We need transcendent, transformative politics in this country and the world, but the mainstream paradigm remains a struggle between established power bases - one, a social democrat model as epitomized in Scandinavian models and the other, a Thatcher/Reagan model of social darwinism wearing a mantle of trickle down, supply-side economics.  There is no question that I prefer the social democrat model, but I think neither model is particularly well-suited to the challenges that the planet is cranking up to deal with a species that is out of control. 

Greece’s experiment with austerity politics in a time of economic stagnation proves once again that pulling more money out of a economic system that has a crashing demand side will cause the economic system to slip to a lower state.  It doesn’t seem to matter if all of the most photogenic politicians that money can buy are spouting platitudes about “growing the economy” by reducing debt, austerity politics just don’t turn stagnating economies around.  You do austerity politics in good economic times, you do keynsian economics in economic downturns if you want somewhat stable economies.  You also need a stable and consistent tax policy that generates the revenue needed for public services.  You don’t flatten taxes in boom times because you will need the accumulated revenue when the boom times go…  well…  boom!

Boom and bust.  Bubble economies.  These cycles should not be a big surprise to anyone who has studied economic cycles.

Transformative politics?   Does that mean democrats?   uhh…   no…   I don’t think those folks misunderstand who is footing the bill for their elections.   Do you think Goldman Sachs money is showing up in the Obama re-election till because they think Obama’s ideas are great?   Well, maybe.    GS has done pretty well since Obama became president.

No, I am thinking about really transformative economics and politics.

Real utopias.  I like the sound of that .

Envisioning Real Utopias from West Coast Poverty Center on Vimeo.

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January 6, 2012 by mike.

Senator Fraser, Representative Hunt and Representative Reykdal all spoke on January 3rd about the “big achievement” of the recent Special Session that was able to cut 480 million dollars to reduce the budget deficit, about 25% of the amount that it is assumed will need to be cut. There was some sense of dread about the next step - the process of cutting another 1.5 billion from the State budget - that is going to be front and center in the Regular Session that starts on January 8th.  And there should be some dread about that.

This group of legislators does seem to have gotten and absorbed the message that this next round of cuts will contribute to the death of some folks in the most needy, most disabled segments of the State population and they appeared to be rightfully horrified about moving from legislative death of a thousand cuts to an actual headcount of citizens who will need to be buried in the coming biennium as a result of legislative action.

Senator Fraser spoke to the citizens who assembled (I counted about 40 persons, but folks were coming and going, so it might have been as many as 60 folks over the two hour meet-up) and stated that the next session is going to be about choosing between funding education or health and welfare services. That may be true, but I would sure like to see Ms. Fraser (a wonderful person btw) absorb George Lakoff’s Don’t Think of Elephants message and focus on the battle for revenue generation or the progressive agenda that can be moved forward (Washington Investment Trust anyone?) independent of the budget brawl.

That’s what we should be talking about: the budget brawl.  Make no mistake, Eyman and his lackeys in the legislature are brawlers who are focused on the long game.  They are not wringing their hands when they fail on an agenda, they are back to writing initiatives and planning the next round of their fight to drown state government like a baby in the bathtub.

I encourage you to click on the link above and read the Norquist quotes if you want to understand the sensitivity of the Norquist/Eyman troops that we face.  Senator Fraser, keep your eye on the prize, the goals, values, and the opportunities that exist each and every moment in our personal and private lives.  You will feel better, you will govern better if you will stop thinking about the other side’s agenda and start thinking and talking our progressive agenda.  Everything develops from that.  Try not thinking of elephants.   Let’s think/talk about the Washington Investment Trust.  Let’s talk about the constitutional requirement to adequately fund education, let’s talk about the personal, moral commitment to create a society where a poor, disabled person can rely on the community, on State government to provide subsistence levels of support.  Keep your eye on the prize.

We are sending up a team of folks who are thinking “don’t strike out.”  Come on.  This is not rocket science.  We understand that the struggle is difficult, but the folks who represent progressive public policy have to show up and show a little grit.

Representative Hunt took a couple of minutes to describe the three budgets that actually exist in State government.  There is an operational budget - the budget for services, salaries for State employees, etc.  There is a capital budget - the budget for buildings, schools, etc. - that can raise revenue from bonds.  And there is the transportation budget that is funded from gas taxes primarily.  The struggle is over the operational budget.  This may be self-evident to state policy wonks, legislators and citizen activists, but is less well-understood by the citizenry, so I guess it makes sense for Mr. Hunt to go over that and to have it repeated.

Sam Hunt also reminded us that WA State has been given a 10th Federal legislative district because of population growth.  Our state government budget has been shrinking as our population has been rising.  These two trends are out of synch.  Population equals demand for State services and the budget is inexorably linked to the demand for state services.  It doesn’t matter if you are thinking about public education, Department of Revenue, or folks behind the counter when you need a driver’s license, population equals demand for State services and that requires money.  Instead we are looking at State government receiving a 40 year low in tax revenue as a percentage of GDP.

I am out of time and energy for this discussion this morning, but I want to come back and tell you about the budget proposal that Rep. Reykdal described to the group.   It was the brightest moment in the discussion for me.  I have saved it for last.  I will be back to tell you about that very soon.  It is time for the dog to wag the tail folks.  I have had enough of the other approach. I hope we all have had enough of that.  It is time to talk about what we have to do to maintain the kind of society that we value.  Let’s talk about our values, our goals.  Let’s commit to passing progressive legislation and establishing progressive public policy.

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January 4, 2012 by mike.

I attended a meeting with the Thurston County legislators on Jan 3rd.  The three legislators are not firebrands, but as a group, representing a community, they (Reykdal, Hunt, Fraser) are probably about as liberal a group as any one community could send to Olympia to develop Washington State public policy, but there is the problem: they don’t seem to see how they can really develop public policy at the legislature. The meeting was organized and facilitated by Molly Gibbs, friend and organizer in the Move to Amend organization.  Molly’s energy is a local treasure.

This is my second meeting with this legislative group.  We (a bunch of leftist activists of various stripes) met with them (minus Reykdal for that meeting) in November 2011 to discuss the Special Session. It was clear in that meeting that Senator Karen Fraser and Representative Sam Hunt are really fine people, with all of the right intentions, but without any of the street-brawler tools or impulses that are required to enact public policy in Olympia today.  I did what I could in the November meeting and again yesterday to move this group off of their “poor me, poor us” frame of reference and to motivate them to enact progressive public policy, but frankly, I don’t know if these folks can imagine throwing down the gauntlet and taking the fight to the other side.

There is an amazing amount of assumed futility, assumed defeat in the democratic party that assembles in the legislature.  The road kill caucus is one thing, pseudo democrats that are as offensive in their true political views as road kill is in flattened flesh.   But the more progressive democrats are roadkill of a different sort.  They are reasonable, law-abiding folks who represent us by continuous compromise and surrender to an ideologically driven right wing political machine that has few discernible principles beyond an anti-tax, free market capitalism fused with the certainty of born-again economic revelation.  Jesus in the Big Top. Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Day Capitalists.

Representative Sam Hunt opened with comments about how the current situation “feels like the middle of a hangover.”  Sam (hair of the dog, bite him back please) said he came away from the Special Session with a feeling of how grim things are.  He also mentioned that not one person (citizen) came to the special session and advocated for an “all cut” budget.  All of the folks who turned out and got Sam’s ear were talking about the need to avoid an all cut budget.  But Rep Hunt and the democrats are feeling completely handcuffed by I-1053 that requires a 2/3 majority vote to raise taxes.  And early rulings on 1053 that were mentioned yesterday have determined that closing loopholes is raising taxes, so even closing tax loopholes to generate revenue is believed to be off the table by the democratic caucus.

Rep Hunt has not been sitting on his hands with regard to challenging I-1053.  He has signed on to the Court challenge to that initiative and the challenge is currently in the Seattle Courts and moving toward a motion for summary judgment to find that tax policy/revenue generation is the purview of the Legislature and that 1053 is an unconstitutional encroachment on that legislative responsibility (if I understand the basis for the challenge adequately).  That is fine, but the time frame on the court decision and the eventual path to the WA Supreme Court suggests that this question will be settled for the 2013 Legislative Session and for now, the Democrats appear to be playing true to form and are declining to event attempt to govern and legislate on the basis that I-1053 is flawed.  You have to give these folks points for their reasonableness and their willingness to follow the rules.  But keep in mind that the other side is not feeling so constrained.

It’s easiest to make the point regarding the other side in terms of national policy, so I will go there.  If rules are in effect and constrain the democrats until such time as a Court strikes them down, you have to compare that with the exuberant willingness of the national republican party to enact legislation that allows for the indefinite detention of US citizens who are suspected of being terrorists.  (terrorist is poorly defined and may include folks who demand gluten-free bread at a local eatery, so it’s pretty broad.)  It seems like there are some constraints on this kind of thing in the bill of rights, in common law going back to the Magna Carta that grant us the right of habeas corpus and due process, but the red staters are not feeling constrained by these old pieces of paper as the craft and pass legislation that creates their brave new world.  It’s fine to know that legislation such as the Patriot Act and the more recent National Defense Act are constitutionally invalid, but that knowledge serves us poorly as these unconstitutional policies spring into effect.  We will have a lively teach-in at a FEMA detention center on the constitutional flaws of indefinite detention if opportunity arises, but I have to wonder if that is the right venue for that discussion?

I came away from the meeting yesterday thinking that we are sending boy scouts to a street fight for public policy.  I don’t think our folks are as prepared as they need to be to adequately represent us against the other side.  We have some work to do to get our folks whipped into shape.  If we cannot get our representatives energized for the fight, we need to ask them to step down and get out of the way.

Hope to get back to this tomorrow with Wag the Dog, Part II.  It’s probably going to take me two or three days to give an adequate recap of the January 3rd meeting and to give my take on what needs to be done.

Will see if I can get back to that tomorrow morning.  Regular session opens on January 9th.

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November 26, 2011 by mike.

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November 26, 2011 by mike.

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