April 6, 2012 by Mike.

Here is the frame:  In 1972 a bunch of computer nerds were commissioned by the Club of Rome to complete computer modeling of finite resources, rates of consumption and population growth.  The output was a book called The Limits to Growth.   It caused a bit of a stir because the computer modeling predicted that global economic collapse and precipitous population decline could occur by 2030.  Wikipedia has a pretty well referenced page on the The Limits to Growth.

The original study was criticized by lots of folks who thought that growth could somehow become sustainable, that more resources would be found, etc.  The methodology was criticized. This study was not popular with economic growth globalists.

The Limits to Growth has been revisited on a number of occasions.  Most recently an Australian physicist named Graham Turner completed a thirty year look back at the computer modeling and Turner’s study is published at The Smithsonian.   This kind of thing is like disneyland for nerds.  Graphs, charts, all sorts of variables to argue about.  It’s a wonderland for slide rule afficionados.  Needless to say, it’s hard to present on CNN, MSNBC, BBC in a way that has gets the message across.

Look at the graph and try to focus on one primary matter:  The thirty year slice of history from 1972 to 2002 shows that the numbers in reality have developed largely as predicted by the 1972 study suggested.   Click on the graph to jump to the Smithsonian story if you want.

The good news is on the blue line where pollution is predicted to drop hard.  So, it’s not all bad.  There is something to look forward to in the projection.

I think I would prefer to see the human population make some difficult choices and reduce consumption to change the trend lines, but it’s not a popular suggestion with the folks who make the decisions.  What do they call themselves?   Oh, yeah…  the deciders.

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April 4, 2012 by Mike.

Lots of coverage of the republican primaries out there.  Few signs of intelligent life in that pile of smoking offal.  Going to move on.  There must be more important stuff going on.

Oh, here we go:  Chris Hedges has a good piece in Truth Dig about the NDAA - National Defense Authorization Act - and what a dangerous piece of legislation the NDAA truly is.  Like the presidential authority to use drone weaponry to assassinate US citizens or our “enemies” anywhere in the world, this NDAA piece of legislation may look less scary to some in the hands of President Obama (I don’t know why that is?  He’s pretty aggressive.) than it might look in the hands of a President Palin, but once presidential authority is asserted, it is seldom relinquished, so you have to look ahead at how the NDAA would work with President Santorum or the like.  I don’t like.

Indefinite military detention.  Hmm…

On another front SCOTUS Inc. came out with another 5-4 decision that says if you are arrested for any offense, no matter how minor, the jail is entitled to strip search you for a close visual inspection.   A bid Thank You to the 4 who voted against, but you lost and so did we.

The plaintiff in the underlying case Florence v. County of Burlington was strip searched twice after he was arrested for failure to pay a fine. The fine had been paid, the arrest should not have occurred, but two strip searches later, Albert W. Florence (a black man) was released.  He was a passenger in his BMW when his wife was pulled over for speeding and the records search produced the erroneous arrest warrant matter.

hmm…    sometimes the authorities simply get it wrong, right?  Those things happen.   No harm, no foul, says Justice Anthony Kennedy.  At least no harm that he can see.

I monitor a  national police oversight listserv and caught this story regarding the Trayvon Martin - George Zimmerman shooting death that continues to build public outrage:  The Elusiveness of Police Accountability. 

There is something particularly scary about a cop wannabe packing a 9 mm weapon and patrolling a neighborhood.  Judgment, training, - there are a lot of things missing in this community security package.  Bu, the Atlantic Cities story tells the story of 18 yo Ramarley Graham, who was chased into his house by NY police and shot dead in the bathroom.  He is reported to have been unarmed and in possession of a small quantity of marijuana.  The point of the Atlantic Cities piece is that if Trayvon had been shot by a police officer instead of a cop wannabe, there would be a lot less news coverage of the event.  That’s probably true.  There is something really disturbing about the fact that Zimmerman continued to follow Martin after dispatch advised to stop.  With Ramarley Graham and Trayvon Martin we appear to have two deaths that just didn’t need to happen.

We don’t know if Ramarley was wearing a hoodie when he was shot.  That seems to be scary attire.  I am wearing my hoodie every day now.

Here are some facts that I think are inescapable:

Justice is elusive.  Handguns are ubiquitous.  Armed men who think they need to keep the peace are dangerous to young black men.

My solution?  Reduce the number of weapons in the community.  Gun control.  Buy back programs.  Interference in the realm of handgun commerce.  A big government type solution to a big public problem.

Yep, a like a little big government from time to time, but I am not too crazy about the NDAA and Scotus Inc.

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March 30, 2012 by Mike.

It seems likely to me that the Supreme Court Inc. will break out 5 to 4 to scuttle as much of the President Obama’s health care program as possible, perhaps all of it.  This is a pyrrhic victory for the opponents of Obama, but may not be all that bad a thing for those of us who think that health care reform based on private insurance and fee for service profitability has always been a poor choice.  The anemic public option that might have kept a foot in the door for the better single payer (Medicare for Everyone) option was dropped by the even more anemic Democratic Party when they were pressed by the Republicans.

Robert Scheer hits the mark in my estimation with his article:  Five Hypocrites and One Bad Plan that ran at Truth Dig.   I think that the five justices in question are simply adhering the hypocritic oath and performing true to form.

Paul Krugman came out today with his view that the 5 right justices would seize on any argument that would allow them to strike down progressive legislation, and if that is true, then maybe it would not have mattered if health care reform had included a public option.

What do you think?  Are the Supremes going to strike it down?  Cast your votes and predict the score.  I am going with the easy prediction:  5 to 4 to strike the law down.

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March 9, 2012 by Mike.

James Stafford with Oilprice.com suggested that their interview with Juan Cole would be of interest.  With gas prices surging over $4 per gallon, oil news is probably of interest.  

I agree, therefore:

Oil & Politics - The Real Situation in Iraq

A delegation from the International Energy Agency spent two days in Baghdad speaking with high-ranking officials in preparation for an end-of-year report on the country’s oil sector. By some estimates, Iraq could hold some of the largest oil reserves in the world and an international auction for oil and natural gas blocks is planned for May. Without a hydrocarbon law, and considering the fractured political system, the IEA’s report may be more about political obstacles than oil potential, however.

Baghdad announced triumphantly this week that oil production increased to more than 3 million barrels per day for the first time in more than 30 years. Exports, the government said, should increase substantially once a new floating oil terminal starts operations later this week. The IEA in December said crude oil production in Iraq could reach an average of 4.36 million bpd by 2016, about half of what Riyadh produces. The agency warned, however, that Iraq’s fractured political system might be as much of an obstacle as anything.

Iraq’s post-invasion political system has never been stable. Tensions in Baghdad flared up when Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki accused his Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi of terrorism almost as soon as the last American troop left the country in December. Juan Cole, the man behind the influential blog Informed Comment, said the action by Maliki “was part of an effort to marginalize and humiliate his Sunni enemies, and a sign of unwillingness to seek a grand national bargain.”

Iraq may be a democratic country in theory but it certainly isn’t quick on the political front, especially when it comes to passing a long-delayed hydrocarbon law. Cole, a professor of history at the University of Michigan, described Iraqi politics as anything but stable.

“I wouldn’t hold my breath on getting anything accomplished on the oil law,” he said.

Maliki may be able to use his hard-ball tactics in an effort to get his way on things like the federal budget, but that doesn’t necessarily equate to widespread political influence across the rest of the country, said Cole.

Kurdish leaders objected profusely when it looked like Exxon Mobil would be left out of Iraq’s upcoming fourth international auction because of its contracts with the semiautonomous Kurdish government. Deputy Prime Minister Rowsch Nuri Shaways, a lawmaker from the Kurdistan Democratic Party, complained, in a statement, that Baghdad was somehow opposed to “economic openness” and the “promotion of trade.” Baghdad protests that any unilateral deals with the Kurdish government are illegal, though Cole said there isn’t much that the central government can do about it.

“The Iraqi government faces two big problems on petroleum development. It is still too weak to provide security reliably for the Western corporations and their employees,” he said. “And, it is still economically depressed enough to be afraid of being taken advantage of by a bidding process that favors the corporations — causing it to drive so hard a bargain that it has spooked potential investors.”

Iraq could be able to take advantage of its strategic position in the Middle East. Its Turkish neighbors to the north are keen to become an influential energy hub by playing host to some of the most ambitious oil and natural gas pipelines in the world. To Iraq’s south, the Strait of Hormuz transports about 20 percent of the oil traded globally.

“Politically, however, Iraq is landlocked,” said Cole.

Getting a federal budget passed this year might’ve been a temporary political victory for Maliki. Long term, however, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to make any claims to a political mandate in a country that relies so heavily on oil for its federal revenue. Baghdad has tilted at times toward Iran and higher oil prices may embolden the Shiite prime minister’s position. But Iraq might find itself in a geopolitical tug-of-war given Washington’s regional interests.

“Iraq is extremely vulnerable right now,” Cole warned.

The IEA is expected to release its report on Iraq in October as a prelude to its full energy outlook for 2012. While expressing optimism about the prospects for the oil sector in post-war Iraq, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said politics are getting in the way of broader developments. When asked what he would title the October report from the IEA, Cole just chuckled and said “slow progress.”

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iraq-Oil-Outlook-Overly-Ambitious.html

By. Daniel J. Graeber of Oilprice.com

Posted in Eco Criminals, Friends and Heroes, News, Politics, Small Foot Print, Connect the Dots, Global Warming | Print | 1 Comment »

February 6, 2012 by Mike.

Good day yesterday in Cascadia as the Washington State leglislature moved gay marriage forward through Senate vote.  The gov put her weight behind this legislation, apparently trying to establish some kind of legacy public policy.  I am completely supportive of the gay marriage legislation, but I have to wonder why the dems will only push one small part of a progressive agenda at a time.  The public is crying out for significant change in public policy and the dem party is such a timid organization.

In another section of the Senate, I believe the Washington Investment Trust remains stuck under the thumb of roadkill Senators Steve Hobbs and Mary Haugen.  Lots of good information about public banks at Banking in the Public Interest.  This is an idea whose time has come.  Banks for the 99%.  Please.  Let’s do that.

Want to let Steve Hobbs know what you think about his roadkill status?

How about Mary Haugen?

Steve Hobbs
Steve.hobbs@leg.wa.gov

Mary Haugen
marymargaret.haugen@leg.wa.gov

Can we help these two get scooped out of the middle of the road where they are doing no discernible good?  Is there an election coming up?  Let’s help these folks join our neighbors who are out there looking for work, shall we?

Lean on the legislators folks.  They respond to two things, private money and public pressure.

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February 2, 2012 by Mike.

Why was North Dakota the only US State not affected by the banking crisis? (It’s not the oil.)

Because it was the ONLY State with its own Public Bank!The State Bank bills are down to the wire in the WA Legislature.   SB 6310 needs to move out of committee now or the bill is dead for this session.  You can read all about the legislation at WA Public Bank Project.

This would be a bank for the 99%.  North Dakota’s State Bank is the model.  We are not reinventing the wheel with this idea.

The Washington State Treasurer James McIntire has weighed in against the bill and the idea of the State Bank.   McIntire has shown himself to the be the Treasurer for the 1%.

Senators Steve Hobbs and Mary Haugen are the two primary votes in committee that are holding up the bill at this moment.

Steve Hobbs
Steve.hobbs@leg.wa.gov

Mary Haugen
marymargaret.haugen@leg.wa.gov

Democracy is not a spectator sport.

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January 7, 2012 by mike.

The brightest moment in the Jan 3rd meeting with Senator Fraser, Representative Hunt and Representative Reykdal came when Chris Reykdal took the opportunity to talk about the impasse that exists with generating revenue for the State.

Reykdal had campaigned for election to the legislature on tax fairness and he appears to be willing to make efforts on that question.  Chris described the revenue proposal that he and freshman Senator David Frockt will be putting on the table.

Reykdal and Frockt’s proposal will eliminate the State business and occupation tax (B&0).  This element of the proposal is expected to be attractive to the republicans.  According to Reykdal, republicans really hate the B&O tax.   I will take him at his word on that, but I haven’t been able to identify any tax that our current generation of republicans don’t hate.  I guess there is some reason to believe that republicans prefer regressive taxes like sales tax that are paid disproportionately by middle and low income citizens.

So, the first part of this tax proposal that Reykdal referred to as The Hope Act is total elimination of the B&O tax.  The second part of The Hope Act would reduce State sales tax from 6.5% to a flat 5%.  Elimination of the B&O tax may or may not be regressive.  I am a low income small business owner who pays the B&O tax each year.  Last year I was pleasantly surprised to find that a tax credit for small business owners was in effect that reduced my annual payment by a significant amount.  I have checked with other business owners whose scale of business is much larger than mine and have been told that they did not notice any significant reduction in 2010 B&O tax.  So, the elimination of the B&O tax may be fairly regressive if that tax has been made somewhat progressive by an enduring tax credit scheme for low income small businesses, but I think the jury is out on that one.  I think there is no question that the B&O tax raises a lot of revenue for the State, so elimination of that tax structure raises the question about how that lost revenue will be replaced.

Sales tax revenue is clearly regressive, so a reduction of the sale tax rate (State part only, local add-ons will still be in effect) is clearly progressive.  But like the elimination of B&O taxes, the sales tax reduction is a loss of revenue for the State and that translates into cuts in services.  Reykdal and Frockt could probably pass these tax cut elements with 100% support from the Norquist Tax Patriots, but we would probably have to reduce education funding in the State to be K-4 proposition from the current K-12 model.  Most folks who get through the fourth grade with the standard set of skills should be able to operate a deep-fryer or a touch screen cash register and will be able to stock shelves at a big box store, so this model works for a State economy based on 32 flavors of fast food and lowest prices, guaranteed, but there are many of us who think that there is a problem with the consumer utopian society, so there may be need to replace some of the lost revenue.

Revenue generation:  this is where Reykdal/Frockt’s proposal gets interesting.  This proposal seeks to increase State revenue by expanding the 5% State sales tax (we should assume that all local add-ons will follow suit) fromEconomic Opportunity Institute goods to goods and services.

So, the bill from your attorney, doctor, tax preparer, and more would start arriving with a sales tax bite.  There is a large number of small business owners (I look in the mirror and see one) who will now need to start collecting and turning over sales tax if the Reykdal/Frockt proposal becomes law.  Reykdal stated that the expansion of sales to everything, would not include sales tax on food.  Ok.  Sales tax on food is a really regressive source of revenue.  It’s a good thing to keep the sales tax off of food.  That’s progressive.

A small, but relevant detail about the sales tax on “everything.”  It’s not quite everything - airplane sales are exempt and would continue to be exempt.  We had a short discussion of the sales tax exemption that exists and will continue to exist if you are selling airplanes.  Planes are a movable feast and buyers might insist on taking delivery of their planes in flight over the Cayman Islands to avoid paying a sales tax, so Reykdal says the only way to generate State tax revenue if you have a company that builds and sells airplanes in your State is through a State income tax.  Hmm…   There will continue to be some tax loopholes so large you can fly an airplane through them.

I am not sure how progressive the expansion of sales tax to services is because I experiencing a bit of resistance to a new tax requirement for my small business operation.  Like a lot of small business owners, I am wondering if I am really going to be able to add this tax without losing some business or if I am going to need to absorb some portion of the sales tax as a business cost that would not be that different from the B&O tax.  My initial calculation on the sales tax v. B&O tax suggests that my small business will be collecting and paying about three times as much money the Dept of Revenue with sales tax than I paid with B&O tax (and that’s before I factor in the surprise small business tax credit that unexpectedly left a few dollars in the till last year).  I think it’s fair to say that businesses and business owners who have not been collecting sales tax are going to be lukewarm at best about the expansion of sales tax to services.  I think we should look to the Economic Opportunity Institute for analysis of Reykdal/Frockt’s proposal. The historical analysis of expansion of sales tax to services is going to suggest that this tax is regressive, but less so than a simple tax rate jump (Gov Gregoire’s and others are ready to go that way to raise revenue).

Finally, the capper on the Reykdal/Frockt tax fairness proposal is implementation of a 1% State income tax.  Reykdal stated that the Washington State Constitution limits State income tax to 1%.  I haven’t fact-checked that assertion, but I am going to trust Chris on that one.  The State has repeatedly rejected State income tax out of ignorance about the woefully regressive nature of our State revenue structure.   We are the most regressive State in the Nation!  We are number 1!

In addition to ignorance and a deep abiding faith and love for the most regressive tax structure in the nation, the opponents of State income tax have always been able to reach into their (deep) pockets and outspend the proponents of a progressive State income tax and I don’t think there is any reason to think that these leopards will change their spots in 2012, so I think the State income tax is going to be a sticking point even though it is a crucial part of the Reykdal/Frockt proposal.

Reykdal projects that this tax package will raise revenue and have instant tax fairness.  I think he is correct.  I am ready to get behind this bill. Bring the fight.  Eyman has been wagging the State’s dog for long enough.  It’s time for the legislature to take back responsibility for the budget and revenue generation.

Well done, Chris.

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January 1, 2012 by mike.

I don’t want to put together a best of list to review 2011.  It was an unsettling year.  The politics of stalemate made it pretty useless and 2012 is an election year, if I am not mistaken, so there is not much chance of legislative action and good public policy in this year (unless an unhappy electorate turns out to the streets in numbers we have not seen to date).

I continue to be bearish on the economy and public policy.  Obama squandered the opportunity of a century to move the country in the right direction, and his financial rescue of Goldman Sachs instead of a jobs program would have to be high on the list of dumbest public decisions of the young century, but we are talking about dumbest public moment of 2011, so that one is out of the running in this context.  

The Herman Cain campaign’s idea of “Women for Herman Cain” was pretty dumb, but it’s the campaign season, so I think that one gets a bye.

Rick Perry had three spectacularly dumb moments, including…   uh…   let’s see….   oops.  Can’t remember the details right now.  I feel bad about having to mention that one. Watching the GOP campaign is  like fishing with dynamite. Some good-looking fish end up floating belly up pretty fast.  Small car, many clowns, it’s a tried and true formula for laughs.

Michelle Bachman has been a disappointment.  Except for a certain deranged twinkle in her eye, she has not really produced.  Michelle Bachman is simply no Sarah Palin. I also want to go on record that I think Sarah would make a dandy ambassador to Saudi Arabia.  You can’t see Saudi Arabia from Alaska, but I am not sure that is very important.

oops…   I digress.

From the Business and Technology sector, I have to give Go Daddy CEO Bob Parsons his due for his video and claims to have shot a “problem, rogue  … bull elephant.”  Discovery News says, well, it was a young female elephant.  Just sayin…   Great white hunter.  Isn’t that one a little tired?  I think we are supposed to go to Africa with vaccines and mosquito nets now, the safari days were last century.  Bob didn’t get the memo.

My personal favorite though is Pepper Spray? “It’s a food product, essentially.”

atta girl.  Pretty dumb moment.  by the way, pepper spray?  It’s not a food product.  Have you tried it?

I guess it would have looked even worse if the police had sprayed non-violent protesters down with ketchup.

Mustard gas?  Can we get Megyn’s take on that one?  Sounds like a food product, right?

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November 26, 2011 by mike.

Posted in Music, Financial Crimes, Friends and Heroes, Eco Criminals, News, Small Foot Print, Connect the Dots, Politics, War Criminals | Print | 1 Comment »

October 3, 2011 by mike.

I know that there are folks who think Obama has done a lot of good, I am just not one of them. I believe that ACA is a sellout to industry that I think will be gutted by the SCOTUS or repealed by a reactionary Congress, it was not the revolution to Medicare for Everyone that is needed. DADT is gone at long last, Obama’s justice department is no longer defending DOMA (is that audacious?).  Baby steps in the right direction. 

But, those baby steps are dwarfed by Obama’s increased use of drone attacks outside of war zones, his embrace of the War on Terror which knows no boundaries or limits, and now, the assassination of an American citizen by drone attack. Make no mistake, this is an impeachable offense, a high crime. A crime that Obama is unlikely to held accountable for, but it is a high crime, an awful precedent, a betrayal of our 5th Amendment right to due process. I am no fan of the Osama bin Laden assassination. I see nothing to celebrate in assassinations. In a human sense, a moral sense, there is no difference between the presidential assassination of bin Laden and the presidential assassination of al-Awlaki, but there are some constitutional differences that scholars may parse if they are so inclined.

We are now holding a handful of meaningless constitutional rights. Read’em and weep.

Happy Monday to all.

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